China's commodity demand has been lumpy this year, with weakness in crude oil and copper being offset by robust gains in iron ore and coal, and this pattern is likely to continue into next year. However, the relative winners may change. Much will depend on the track of economic reforms and how much success the world's largest commodity user has in rotating its economy to be more consumer led.
China's official target for gross domestic product growth was 7.5 percent for 2013, and while the target for next year has not yet been announced, it's likely to be maintained or perhaps lowered slightly. But more important than the overall target for GDP is how the growth is achieved.
The pattern for the past two years has been that China's economy has seen momentum losses in the key industrial sector, followed by a re acceleration in growth as policies are imple- mented to boost infrastructure and construction investment.
This is clearly a pattern the authorities would like to move away from, but to achieve a more consumer-driven economy without sacrificing growth rates is proving tough to achieve.
Nonetheless, the most likely policy path for 2014 is to continue efforts to move away from investment-led growth, albeit at a modest pace.
This means the recent trend of slowing demand growth for commodities is likely to continue. However, lower growth rates still mean significant volume gains given the higher starting points after years of strong demand.