World food production to decrease in coming years

Following an exceptional but unsustainable rate of growth in developing countries, global food production will slow over the coming decade, with more investment needed in the sector.

"The average annual growth in global agricultural production through 2021 will slow to 1.7%, down from the 2.6% of the previous decade," the Food and Agriculture Organisation said Thursday (Dec 6) in its yearly report.

"Agriculture in many countries has grown at a pace that cannot be sustained," it said, adding that production shot up by over 50% over the last 12 years in Latin America as a whole and by 70% in Brazil alone. Production had also increased by over 40% in Sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern Europe and central Asia, and by 20% in the US and Western Europe, the Rome-based agency said.

Biofuel production has also expanded rapidly over the past 10-15 years, particularly in the US, Brazil and the EU, it said. Ethanol production in the US shot up by 780% over the last 12 years while in Brazil it grew by 140%. This year, it absorbed over 37% of coarse grain crop in the US and over 50% of Brazil''s sugar cane crop.

According to the report, most of the best land is already being used globally for agriculture, and what is left is either in remote locations inaccessible without infrastructure development or is wanted for urban use. Furthermore, the existing land is under threat from creeping degradation.

As demand for foodgrows over the coming decades, the slowdown in production can be offset by investment in agriculture, "one of the most effective strategies for reducing poverty and hunger and promoting sustainability," it said.

The world''s small farmers must be central to any agricultural investment strategy, the FAO said, but it added that action by farmers is often limited by unfavourable investment climates.

"A new investment strategy is needed that puts agricultural producers at its centre," said FAO head Jose Graziano da Silva. "The challenge is to focus the investments in areas where they can make a difference. This is important to guarantee that investments will result in high economic and social returns and environmental sustainability," he said.

Despite the rapid expansion in output the FAO''s Food Price Index more than doubled over a decade to hit a peak in 2011. Although food prices have since declined they still remain well above historical averages. Food price inflation has been particularly severe in countries such as China, Rwanda and Thailand.

According to the last figures published by the FAO in October, close to 870 million people still suffer from hunger across the world.