January 23, 2014
Russia''s 2013-14 grain exports may surpass official forecasts
Driven by large supplies of corn, Russia''s grain exports are likely to exceed official forecasts in the 2013-14 marketing year, which lasts until the end of June, agricultural analysts SovEcon said.
A record level of corn exports currently compensates for weak exports of wheat from Russia, SovEcon said. The USDA expects Russia to remain the world''s fifth-largest wheat exporter in 2013-14.
"A record volume of December corn exports compensated significantly for lower exports of wheat and barley," SovEcon said in a note. Russia''s 2013 corn crop rose by a third, on-year, and hit a record level of 10.7 million tonnes.
Due to record corn supplies, Russia is likely to export 22 million tonnes of grains, including pulses and flour, in 2013-14, compared with 16.3 million tonnes in 2012-13, SovEcon said.
Russia''s Agriculture Ministry expects an exportable surplus of 20 million tonnes this year. The country''s December corn exports hit a record of 682,000 tonnes, mainly due to supplies to EU countries which compensated for a significant decrease in supplies to South Korea.
Russia''s 2013-14 corn exports are expected to be 3.5 million tonnes, of which 500,000 tonnes can be exported in January, SovEcon said.
In January, Russia is likely to export between 1.1 million and 1.2 million tonnes of grains, down from 2.43 million tonnes in December and 2.56 million tonnes in November, according to SovEcon.
Russia''s wheat remains too expensive for Egypt''s main buyer General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), compared with supplies from rival countries. Russian January wheat exports may fall to 500,000-600,000 tonnes from 1.54 million tonnes in December, SovEcon said. Barley exports may fall to 50,000-90,000 tonnes in January from 137,000 tonnes in December, it added.