December 13, 2013
US pork, beef production forecasts up slightly in 2014
In its latest "World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates" (WASDE) report, the USDA raised total red meat production for both 2013 and 2014, as well as forecast increased beef exports, cattle prices and beef production estimates over its November predictions.
Pork production in 2014 was forecast at 23.9 million pounds for 2013, up slightly from 23.8 million pounds forecast in November. Hog prices for 2014 were left unchanged but lowered for 2013.
On strong demand for fed cattle, cattle prices were raised for both 2013 and 2014.
The USDA lowered its 2013 and 2014 forecast of pork exports based on slightly weaker demand in Asia.
According to the report, the increase is a result of higher expected cattle and hog carcass weights and higher cattle slaughter. The beef production forecast expects imports to remain consistent with earlier predictions.
Shrinking supplies will make each head more valuable with expected prices next year higher in the December report than a month earlier. The USDA specifically focuses on fed cattle prices, which have remained above US$130 per hundredweight (cwt) while beef prices hover above US$200.
High beef prices will weigh on consumer demand next year as per capita consumption increased from November estimates, but remains 6% lower than 2013 projections.