July 24, 2013
US 2014 pork production forecast to increase
USDA''s July production forecast showed the 2014 pork production at 24.135 billion pounds and beef production to be 24.105 billion pounds.
Domestic pork demand in May was up 1.0% compared to a year ago by my calculations. After 10 consecutive down months, export demand for US pork was up 1.3% in May. Overall consumer meat demand was 0.9% stronger this May than last.
Both hog prices and retail porkprices in June were the second highest ever. Retail prices for pork in June averaged US$3.551/pound. That was up US$0.061 from the average for May, up US$0.154 from a year ago, and a penny under the US$3.561/pound record set in September 2011. The average live price for 51-52% lean hogs during June was US$72.65/cwt. That was up US$6.62 from May, up US$4.78 from June 2012, and US$3.44 under the record set in August 2011.
As of July 15, 66% of corn acres were rated in good or excellent condition. That is down two percentage points from the week before, but up 35 points from a year ago. Corn prices are expected to plummet as we approach harvest.
The September corn contract ended the week at US$5.44/bushel and December corn settled at US$5.01. September soymeal futures ended the week at US$423.70/tonne. December meal settled at US$382.50/tonne.
The national average negotiated carcass price for direct delivered hogs on the morning report on Monday (Jul 22) was US$94.22/cwt, down US$1.29 from last Friday (Jul 19). The eastern Corn Belt averaged US$92.79/cwt in the morning of Monday (Jul 22). Both the western Corn Belt and Iowa-Minnesota had a morning average of US$97.64/cwt. Peoria had a top live price this morning of US$64/cwt. Zumbrota, MN topped out at US$66/cwt. The top for interior Missouri live hogs Friday was US$69/cwt, down US$3.00 from the previous Friday (Jul 12).
Friday morning''s pork cut-out value based on mandatory price reporting was US$99.79/cwt FOB plants, down US$3.21 from the week before, but up US$8.59 from a year ago. Loins, hams and bellies were all lower this week. The average hog carcass price is 94.4% of the calculated pork cut-out value.
Hog slaughter this week totalled 2.007 million head, down 1.5% from the week before, but up 2.3% compared to the same week last year. Since June 1, barrow and gilt slaughter has been roughly 0.5% above what was expected based on the June inventory report. The average barrow and gilt live weight in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 272.0 pounds, down 0.9 pound from a week earlier, but up 3.5 pounds from a year ago.
The August lean hog futures contract closed at US$96.47/cwt Monday (Jul 22), up US$1.57 from the previous Friday. October hog futures ended the week at US$84.97/cwt, up US$0.77 from the week before. December hogs closed the week at US$82.22/cwt, up US$0.87 from the previous Friday.