April 21, 2015
U.S. SORGHUM exports this year will hit a record 9 million tonnes due to strong demand from China, according to the latest (April 13) Feed Outlook report from the US Department of Agriculture.
The USDA says the country''s sorghum exports this marketing year would be 1.5 million tonnes more than last year.
Shipments and sales are supported by strong demand from China, where sorghum can be imported without a tariff-rate quota and competes with internal corn prices supported well above prevailing world prices, it adds.
So far, according to the USDA, "sorghum has had fewer problems clearing Chinacustoms than corn and corn products, sometimes rejected for having genetic material unapproved by China."
Chinese importers have bid a premium for sorghum, pushing traditional sorghum importers, especially Mexico, to alternative feeds.
The pace of sales and shipments in the first half of 2014/15 has been very strong, supporting the projected 54% year-to-year increase in US sorghum exports.
For October 2014 through February 2015 Census, exports reached 3.7 million tonnes, nearly 2.5 times more than for the same time a year ago. March 2015 grain inspections topped 1.0 million tonnes, up 66% from last year.
Moreover, on April 2, 2015, outstanding export sales were 2.7 million tonnes, up 89% from a year ago. The pace of export commitments easily supports prospects for record exports.
But US sorghum exports for 2014/15, the USDA report says, will be limited by tight supplies. "The price premium in the export market is pulling sorghum away from domestic use, but US supplies are limited.
However, the report adds, "the planting intentions indicated an increase in sorghum area for Texas in 2015."
The increased US sorghum exports are reflected in a 1.5-million-tonne increase in China''s imports to 8.5 million. There are small reductions in projected imports for Colombia and Chile, as their pace of purchases has been slow, the USDA says.
The USDA further reports that world corn prospects are up 2.3 million tonnes to 991.9 million.
While some countries experienced crop losses for a variety of reasons, growing conditions were favorable overall in many countries, it adds.
Mexico''s 2014/15 corn production is forecast up 0.8 million tonnes to 24.0 million, supported by record yield prospects.
Argentina''s corn production prospects for 2014/15 are raised 0.5 million tonnes to 24.0 million. "Abundant rainfall caused flooding problems in some areas, but most regions report excellent yield potential," according to the USDA.
In Egypt, attractive returns for corn reportedly increased corn area and more than offset a small reduction in yields, boosting 2014/15 corn production 0.2 million tonnes to 6.0 million.
Indonesia''s good rains support a small increase in expected corn area and yields, increasing production prospects 0.2 million tonnes to 9.4 million.
Smaller increases are projected this month for corn production in Ecuador and the Philippines, but declines are forecast for Russia, Nicaragua, Peru, Guatemala, Thailand, and El Salvador, the report says.
The USDA also projects global corn trade for October-September 2014/15 to reach 120.0 million tonnes.
"Indonesia''s imports are forecast up 0.9 million tonnes to 3.5 million, matching the previous year''s estimate, as consumption increases supported by demand for chicken feed outpace domestic corn production.
The USDA raises China''s corn import prospects by "0.5 million tonnes to 3.0 million due to the pace of recent shipments from Ukraine."
Iran''s imports prospects are also raised 0.5 million tonnes, with Peru up 0.3 million, and Chile and Colombia each being increased by 0.2 million based on the pace of recent sales and shipments.
These increases, the USDA says, "are partly offset by reduced corn imports projected for Mexico, down 0.9 million tonnes, and Ecuador and the Philippines, each trimmed 0.1 million, because of increased production prospects.
Corn exports are projected higher mainly for Argentina, up 1.5 million tonnes to 16.0 million.