Five High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) projects will be launched in China in the next few months, which may lead to the price decrease of HFCS in H2 2012,according to CCM’s November issue of Sweeteners China News.
According to CCM International's survey, five domestic HFCS producers will launch their HFCS projects in the near future, including Luzhou Bio-chem Technology Co., Ltd. (Luzhou Bio-chem), Shandong Xiangchi Group Co., Ltd., GBT-Cargill High Fructose (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., Wuhan COFCO Food Technology Co., Ltd. and Star Lake Bioscience Co., Ltd. (Star Lake Bioscience). All of them will be engaged in the production of F55, one main kind of HFCS. Among the five companies, two will solely focus on F55 thanks to its profitable prospect in the near future. (Please refer to Sweeteners China News 1110, p2).
The HFCS industry in China is enjoying sound development at present. In accordance with CCM International's research, the capacity of HFCS is estimated to increase from about 1,200,000t/a in 2008 to 3,000,000t/a in 2011, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.72%.
It is the HFCS industry's promising future that attracts the five producers to join in the business. On one hand, due to HFCS' great taste and similar sweetness as sucrose, it is a perfect substitute for sucrose. Thus, when the price of sucrose goes up, HFCS becomes the first beneficiary. In terms of China Sugar Index, the market price of sucrose in China has been showing a rising trend since October 2008, which reached USD1,198/t in September 2011, increasing 32.38% over the same period last year. Meanwhile, the prices of F42 and F55, the two major kinds of HFCS, rose by 13.01% and 23.17% respectively over September 2010. As seen from the below data, the price growth rate of sucrose was much higher than that of HFCS. Thus, more and more downstream producers chose HFCS to replace sucrose, boosting the demand for HFCS. Hence, HFCS manufacturers begin to expand capacities of the product.
On the other hand, consumption increase also drives HFCS development. Actually, HFCS is mainly used in food, especially beverages and confectionery. In the recent three years, Chinese beverage and confectionery industries have been growing rather fast, promoting the consumption of HFCS. In light of the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of beverages has been growing considerably during the past. For example, the output of soft drinks reached about 66.9 million tonnes in the first seven months of 2011, up 23.36% over the same period last year. Besides, the output of confectionery rose to 1.07 million tonnes in the first seven months of 2011, growing by 19.10% over the same period last year. Booming growth of the two industries greatly pushes forward the consumption of HFCS.
Therefore, most HFCS producers believe in HFCS' huge development potential. Take Star Lake Bioscience as a good example, Ms. Sun, a representative of the company's bond department, explained that the increasing demand for HFCS attracted Star Lake Bioscience to construct a new HFCS project in early 2011.
Besides, some HFCS producers launch new projects in order to improve product structure. In view of Luzhou Bio-chem, the company only has HFCS production lines of F42. As F55 is used more and more widely, Luzhu Bio-chem decided to build HFCS F55 production lines.
Normally, the price of HFCS is affected by corn supply and its downstream demand. Domestic price of corn may stay relatively stable in the rest months this year thanks to the expected bumper corn harvest, indicating corn supply won't have notable effect on HFCS price in the near future. In accordance with a report published by China National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC) in Aug. 2011, China's corn output is estimated to increase by 2.96% to about 182.5 million tonnes this year over 2010, and the price of corn may stay comparatively steady, maintaining the cost of HFCS which is made from corn.
Under the above conditions, the rising new supply of HFCS may be the main reason for its prospective price decrease. When those five HFCS projects with total capacity of 0.55 million t/a get launched, the supply of HFCS is estimated to increase abundantly, and its growth rate may also exceed that of HFCS demand from downstream industries. Therefore, HFCS price may decrease to some extend in the near future.
However, though the launches of those five HFCS projects may affect the price jointly, the five producers will not start keen competitions against each other owing to their different targeted sales regions. Because of HFCS' three months of short shelf life and high freight fees, companies usually market their products locally or nearby. Since the five producers are located in various regions around China, their newly launched HFCS projects will hardly overlap in marketing areas, avoiding contests against each other.
Source: Sweeteners China News1111
http://www.cnchemicals.com/Newsletter/NewsletterDetail_190.html
Content of Sweeteners China News1111:
Stevia may have bumper harvest in China in 2011
Guangxi Nanning Sugar may obtain good profit
Lanzhou Dafeng plans to build a science and technology zone of plants
New beet sugar marketed in Xinjiang
GLG's new beverages to be late
Wenshan Yingmao founded in Yunnan Province
Overview of rice starch sugar
Five HFCS projects to be launched
Sucralose producers improve production technology actively
……
(GuangzhouChina, November 9, 2011)
Sweeteners China News is a monthly newsletter published by CCM International Limited. Based on China market, CCM offers timely update and close follow up of China’s various kind of sweeteners market dynamics, analyze the market data and trends, Major columns include market dynamic, company dynamic, raw material supply, price update, import & export analysis, Consumption Trend & Competitiveness.
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