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China’s coal demand may peak by 2030, BP

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Publish time: 28th April, 2016      Source: www.cnchemicals.com
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BP Group, one of the world’s leading integrated oil and gas companies, forecasted China’s coal demand to peak by 2030 in its Energy Outlook for 2016 released in January this year, compared with the expected peak year of 2025 in last year’s Outlook.Meanwhile, global coal demand is expected to hit the highest level by 2027, and to decline at an annual rate of 0.3% from the year of 2028 to 2035, said the Outlook.The forecasted global energy demand is 1% lower than last year, with forecasted global coal demand 6% less than 2015, which was mainly attributed to slowdown of China’s coal consumption.The world’s coal demand growth may sharply decline, with its annual rate at 0.5%, compared with the 3% during the past twenty years. By 2035, coal’s share of primary energy will fall to the record lowest level, and natural gas is expected to become the second major fuel in the world.However, China, still standing as the largest coal market in the globe, will consume almost half of the world’s coal supplies in 2035.A forecasted annual growth rate of 0.2% in China’s coal demand signaled the potential decline of coal’s share in primary energy from 66% in 2014 to 47% in 2035, while natural gas’s share will double to 11% and that of oil will stay at around 19%. China’s dependence on coal will thus be greatly dented.By 2035, China may take place of Europe to become the largest energy importer, with its dependence on energy import rising from 15% to 23%. And then, China is expected to consume 25% of the world’s energy.