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CCM: China's sugar output continues falling

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Publish time: 3rd August, 2016      Source: CCM
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  China's sugar production in the 2015/16 extracting season (Oct. 2015-Sept. 2016) comes near to an end. To date, except a small quantity of sugar plants in Yunnan Province that are still working, other provinces/ regions have already finished the extracting.

  

  According to statistics from the China Sugar Association (CSA), by the end of April, the output of sugar totalled 8.55 million tonnes, down by 17.05% over 10.31 million tonnes in 2014/15. Specifically,

      
  •     Cane sugar: 7.71 million tonnes, down by 19.43%   
      
  •     Beet sugar: 839,800 tonnes, up by 13.92%   

  
Regarding the sales, by the end of April 2016 also, the figure was up to 4.03 million tonnes, down by 26.05% YoY. The sales rate was at 47.15%, vs. 52.88% in the same period last extracting season. In particular,

      
  •     Cane sugar: 3.51 million tonnes, down by 30.92% YoY, sales rate at 45.58% vs. 53.16%   
      
  •     Beet sugar: 517,400 tonnes, up by 42.10% YoY, sales rate at 61.61% vs. 49.35%   

  
Meanwhile, the stock reached 4.52 million tonnes, down by 6.97% YoY.

  
It can be seen that the domestic sales and production decreased at the same time. Still, the sugar makers were under certain sales pressure. This was in relation to the sugar price rises. According to statistics from CAS, by the end of April 2016, the sales price of sugar by leading sugar makers was USD839.15/t (RMB5,418/t), up by 14.38% YoY, including:

      
  •     Cane sugar at USD838.23/t (RMB5,412/t) vs. USD733.37/t (RMB4,735/t)   
      
  •     Beet sugar at USD848.60/t (RMB5,479/t) vs. USD742.82/t (RMB4,796/t)   

  
In April 2016 specifically, the sales of sugar reached 542,300 tonnes. The corresponding sales price was USD844.58/t (RMB5,453/t), involving cane sugar at USD840.86/t (RMB5,429/t) and beet sugar at USD893.05/t (RMB5,766/t).

  
Now the domestic sugar price is still under upward trend. This indicates that the starch sugars, prices of which are under downturn, will further substitute sugar in food and beverage industries and will threaten the sales of sugar.

  

  

  
As a whole, the sugar price in China is expected to grow further in 2015/16. This is mainly because:

  

   First, as the extracting season comes near to an end and the total output of sugar decreases significantly, the sugar price will be strongly supported to rise.

  
Second, the Chinese government is intensifying the fight against sugar smuggling, beneficial to price stability. If policies are issued to restrict the imports of sugar, the domestic sugar market will be reactivated further.

  

   Third, the output of sugar also declines in India in 2015/16, which consequently has pulled down its sugar price and exports. The political changes in Brazil have resulted in BRL appreciations, which may restrict its sugar exports, further push up the international sugar price and help stabilise and level up China's sugar price.

  

Production and sales of sugar in China in 2015/16 extracting season

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            
        

          Province         

      		         

          By the end of April, 2016         

      		         

          Remark (extracting)         

      
        

          Production, tonne         

      		         

          Sales, tonne         

      		         

          Sales rate, %         

      
        

          Total         

      		         

          8,549,700         

      		         

          4,031,500         

      		         

          47.15         

      		         

          /         

      
        

          Cane sugar         

      		         

          7,709,900         

      		         

          3,514,100         

      		         

          45.58         

      		         

          /         

      
        

          Guangdong Province         

      		         

          630,900         

      		         

          257,400         

      		         

          40.80         

      		         

          All finished         

      
        

          Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region         

      		         

          5,110,000         

      		         

          2,505,000         

      		         

          49.02         

      		         

          All finished         

      
        

          Yunnan Province         

      		         

          1,768,400         

      		         

          675,100         

      		         

          38.18         

      		         

          31/60+ sugar plants finished         

      
        

          Hainan Province         

      		         

          150,900         

      		         

          45,800         

      		         

          30.35         

      		         

          All finished         

      
        

          Others         

      		         

          49,700         

      		         

          30,800         

      		         

          61.97         

      		         

          All finished         

      
        

          Beet sugar         

      		         

          839,800         

      		         

          517,400         

      		         

          61.61         

      		         

          /         

      
        

          Heilongjiang Province         

      		         

          11,000         

      		         

          11,000         

      		         

          100         

      		         

          All finished         

      
        

          Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region         

      		         

          432,300         

      		         

          195,000         

      		         

          45.11         

      		         

          All finished         

      
        

          Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region         

      		         

          274,000         

      		         

          225,000         

      		         

          82.12         

      		         

          All finished         

      
        

          Hebei Province         

      		         

          97,500         

      		         

          63,800         

      		         

          65.44         

      		         

          All finished         

      
        

          Others         

      		         

          25,000         

      		         

          22,600         

      		         

          90.40         

      		         

          All finished         

      

  Source: China Sugar Association

   

  This article comes from Sweeteners China News 1605, CCM

   

  

  

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  CCM is the leading market intelligence provider for China's agriculture, chemicals, food & ingredients and life science markets. Founded in 2001, CCM offers a range of data and content solutions, from price and trade data to industry newsletters and customized market research reports. Our clients include Monsanto, DuPont, Shell, Bayer, and Syngenta. CCM is a brand of Kcomber Inc.

  

   

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  Tag: sugar